Saturday, December 15, 2007

A Lack of Scarcity


"There is always more...that's what more means." - Earl Sinclair (Dinosaurs circa 1992)


You might not remember the short-live TV sitcom "Dinosaurs" (ABC Television 1991-1994). I recall the irreverent manner in which modern American society was satirized by over-sized muppets. Strikingly, the dinosaur society embraced all things irresponsible - conservatism and environmentalism were mocked by the mainstream. In the episode on conservatism, the question was posed about what happens when the society consumes all of a precious resource and there is no more - hence the memorable quote above - a battle cry for consumerism.


Remember how absurd it seemed the first time you were forced to pay 40 cents for a gallon of gas?!?! Of course, that was before my own driving days, but I was old enough to recognize what was going on. Living in Houston Texas, and spending my Sundays watching a football team called the "Oilers", I could not understand how oil and gasoline could suddenly be in short supply! Over the last 30 years, the world has started to realize the finite nature of oil and petro reserves - this doesn’t necessarily mean that there is a solution in sight, but at least we understand that there is NOT "always more".


Much like the 1970's, I sense the dawn of a new reality in the civilized world - one that is even harder to swallow. What if there is not always more water? In 2003, a power utility executive in the Southeast informed me that southeast states such as Florida expected to have extreme water shortages within the next five years - that was five years ago. I wonder if the economics of water will soon follow the economics of gas and oil. (Of course, you may argue that, for the average consumer of bottled drinking water, the economic shift is in place). Go to a gas station, fill up the car with unleaded and buy yourself a cold bottle of water - which was more expensive?


But for the really large consumers of water, the price isn't moving very fast. When other commodity costs shot through the roof (oil, steel, gas), industry responded by finding more efficient alternatives that reduced their consumption of these precious commodities. Even with the epic drought conditions in many parts of the world - the price of water is not tracking with supply - removing the financial incentive to conservation. So, despite the lowering lake and river levels, financially speaking - there is a lack of scarcity.
(On the other hand - Sean Tevis seems to have come up with his own conservation solution.)